Copper Nears Record High as Tariff Uncertainty Adds New Supply Chain Pressure

AdobeStock photo

Copper prices are approaching record territory as uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper reshapes global inventories and adds another layer of pricing and supply-chain risk for PHCP-PVF businesses.

Copper prices are once again commanding attention across global markets, with prices nearing record highs as traders position themselves ahead of a potential new round of U.S. tariffs on refined copper.

Reuters reported on August 25 that three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange recently reached $14,343 per metric ton, putting prices within striking distance of the all-time high of $14,527.50 per metric ton. The rally is occurring even as the broader global copper market remains adequately supplied, highlighting how trade policy and the geographic location of available inventory are increasingly influencing prices.

Tariff uncertainty reshapes copper flows

Copper products are already subject to Section 232 tariffs. A July 30, 2025 presidential proclamation imposed a 50% tariff on the copper content of covered semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products beginning August 1, 2025.

The tariff framework was broadened and modified in 2026. An April 2 proclamation applied a 50% tariff to the full customs value of most covered copper articles, rather than only their copper content, while establishing different treatment for certain products. A subsequent proclamation issued June 1, 2026 (effective June 8), replaced the uniform rate with a variable, country-by-country tariff structure, meaning the applicable rate on copper, copper scrap, and covered derivatives now depends on the product's country of origin, rather than a single flat percentage applying across the board.

The key distinction for the current market, however, is refined copper. Despite the Section 232 tariffs already affecting many copper products, refined copper, including cathodes, was excluded from the original tariff action. Instead, the Commerce Department recommended a phased universal tariff of 15% beginning Jan. 1, 2027 and 30% beginning Jan. 1, 2028. The July 2025 proclamation directed Commerce to provide an updated assessment of the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026 before the president determined whether those tariffs should be imposed.

That proposed tariff on refined copper has not yet been implemented, leaving the market to anticipate whether the administration will move forward with the 15% duty scheduled for consideration in 2027.

The uncertainty is already affecting where copper is going.

Reuters reported that the U.S. imported approximately 885,000 metric tons of copper during the first half of 2026, putting imports on pace to surpass previous annual records. Traders have been moving copper into the U.S. ahead of the possibility of future tariffs, building inventories domestically while reducing the amount of readily available metal elsewhere.

Another variable for the supply chain

The tariff question is not the only factor supporting higher copper prices. Reuters noted that low inventories outside the U.S., disruptions at mines and outages at major smelting operations are also contributing to tighter market conditions.

Recent volatility has already been significant. On August 19, Reuters reported that the LME copper market experienced a sharp squeeze as available warehouse inventories struggled to match large market positions. Cash copper prices briefly reached a record $14,912 per metric ton during the disruption before conditions eased.

These developments are reminders that tariffs can affect the supply chain well before a new duty actually takes effect. Expectations surrounding future trade policy can alter purchasing decisions, inventory positioning and the movement of raw materials around the world.

Until the administration provides greater clarity on whether refined copper will face the proposed 2027 tariff, volatility around copper pricing and availability could remain an important issue for businesses throughout the industry.

Sources: Reuters reporting published Aug. 19 and Aug. 25, 2026; White House presidential proclamations dated July 30, 2025, April 2, 2026, and June 1, 2026.

By Natalie Forster