ASA’s January Economic Report: New Year, Same Economy?

From the January 2024 ASA Monthly Economic Report: GDP once again surprised analysts in Q4, coming in at 3.3% against expectations of 1.5-2%. The growth was on the back of strong exports of energy (mostly refined fuels), good consumer spending, strong nonresidential construction, and continued government spending (local, state, and federal).

For 2024, most analysts are still calling for some sluggishness in the first half as consumers try to pay down credit card debt. But just as we have seen in the past year, the consumer has continued to surprise all of us, and with that spending accounting for 70% of GDP, it should keep total economic growth stable unless layoffs accelerate.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.

Additionally, Armada noted that nobody really knows whether a mild recession is coming or

not, that’s clear from how quickly forecasts are changing. New consensus forecasts now show Q1 coming in perhaps as high as 1%, with Q2 and Q3 now showing contraction of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. The Fed still expects the full year to come in at 1% - 1.2%.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Why are the central banks still worried? Also in the Economic Report, ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl also writes on how the economy is constantly in flux. There is always something changing and (half the time) the change is unexpected.

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

By Brianna Baresel
bbaresel@asa.net