ASA’s June Economic Report: Economic Momentum Slows: Is Growth Losing Steam?

From June’s ASA Monthly Economic Report: Remember all that positive GDP news reported earlier in the year and most of last year? Hold on to that memory as there has been a very abrupt change and an unpleasant one. It was only a few weeks ago that GDP numbers were flirting with growth between 3.5% and 4.0%. The latest data shows a profound crash that has taken second quarter estimates as low as 1.3%. That is verging on recession especially given the speed of that collapse.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.

Armada also wrote that the “ceasefire” has been largely ineffective as far as the oil markets are concerned although the price per barrel has fallen to $73. The tanker traffic is still limited but the markets are well aware that there is still abundant oil on the market. Remember that earlier in the year the issue was an oil glut that could have taken prices down to as low as $45 or $50.

What to Watch: Right now the focus in the US has started to shift to politics. This is when one might expect a lot of activity designed to curry favor with voters and that means economic gestures that are designed to spur growth.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What Would It Take for the Fed to Hike Interest Rates?
Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.