Washington Weekly - January 4, 2023
Upcoming Washington Event:
ASA Government Affairs is excited to announce that we are in the planning stages for an upcoming Legislative Fly-In to take place in March 2023. More details to come!
This Week:
Congress:
We’re Back: After taking a break for the month of August, both houses of Congress are back in session with several issues to settle. With less than nine weeks to go before the election, some of the issues that will come up are:
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Federal Budget: Funding for the federal government runs out on September 30, meaning Congress has less than three weeks to figure out what it wants to do. At this point, it is highly unlikely that both houses will be able to settle all 12 appropriations bills meaning that the CR that pundits have been anticipating for months is likely to happen, will. However, a few things (below) may stall it.
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Manchin Energy Permitting Deal: Before the August recess, Senate Democrats struck a deal with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on the budget resolution (aka Inflation Reduction Act). In exchange for his support, leadership agreed to reform permitting for a variety of energy projects. The prospect of this measure being attached to another must pass bill has received immediate pushback, especially in the House.
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Additional Funding: The White House is seeking an additional $47.1 billion in emergency funding for a variety of issues including: $18.4 billion in additional COVID-19 measures (vaccines, testing, treatments), $3.9 billion for monkeypox response (including $600 million for foreign efforts), $11.7 billion in military and economic aid for Ukraine, $2 billion for domestic energy (includes $500 million to upgrade the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), and $6.5 billion for disaster relief.
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Nominations: There are many nominations within the Administration that the Senate will be reviewing and voting on.
Administration
He’s Back: After White House climate advisor Gina McCarthy announced her departure last week, the Biden Administration wasted no time in announcing the appointment of former Clinton White House Chief of Staff and 2016 Clinton campaign manager John Podesta to the role.
Politics:
As the 2022 election starts its final stretch to November, there are several factors that are coming into play, including the economy, global conflict, inflation, the investigation of the former President – along with the usual rhetoric that both parties engage in. Over the last 80 years, there have only been two times when the party in the White House did not lose seats in Congress, most recently in 2002, during the aftermath of 9/11.
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Will abortion be the magic issue that Democrats need to stave off a Republican wave? Will Democrats lose suburban voters because of continuing economic and crime challenges? So far, there have been several special elections that have taken place this year, and all have gone according to plan except for two.
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First, Republicans flipped TX-34 in a July special election. Then, Democrats flipped the Alaska At-Large seat held by the late Rep. Don Young (R-AK) since 1973. In the Texas seat, the new lines of the Texas seat will heavily favor a Democrat in November.
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In Alaska, Republicans will argue that because of ranked choice voting, two GOP candidates (Sarah Palin and Nick Begich) split the 60% of votes that their party received, allowing Rep.-Elect Mary Peltola (D-AK) to win with 40%. They will also point out that increased turnout for the November election will flip the seat back to the Republican column.
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Always keep in mind that political campaigns are a marathon, not a sprint. If a campaign peaks too early, they run into the danger of losing it at the end. The campaigns that build momentum at the right time emerge victorious on election day.
A few house races worth watching:
CA-27: Rep Mike Garcia (R) flipped this Democratic seat in 2020, having won both a special election, as well as a general election, in two hard fought campaigns against Democratic Assemblymember Christy Smith. California Democrats in the legislature redrew the map to a D+4, making it harder for Garcia to win re-election. This seat will not be easy for either party to win, with the most recent poll showing Rep. Garcia up 2 points.
MI-10: After a tough, to point loss to Sen. Gary Peters (D) in 2020, John James has found a new home in MI-10, with the Republicans in the Michigan legislature crafting a district into one that former President Trump won in 2020, with a rating of R+3. Recent polls have James leading by almost 5 points.
WI-3: Rep. Ron Kind (D) represented this central Wisconsin district as a true moderate. After a narrow win against Derrick Van Orden (R) and a new district map that pushed this seat further into the Republican column, Rep. Kind announced his retirement, paving the way for Van Orden to run again. A fresh poll has Derrick Van Orden leading by 9 points.
Generic Congressional Ballot (RCP Average): Tie
President Biden Job Approval (RCP Average): 42% Approve – 55% Disapprove
Retirement Tracker: Senate: (1 D, 5 R); House: (34 D, 17 R).
Special Elections: Republican-held: Indiana’s 2nd: 11/08/2022
The House now has composition of 219 Democrats to 211 Republicans (with 5 vacancies). The Senate is comprised of 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans – with Democrats controlling the chamber as the Vice President also serves as the President of the Senate.
State Legislation Tracking