ASA’s November Economic Report: From Growth to Caution - What the Latest Data Says About the U.S. Economy

From November 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: The government shutdown still has much Federal economic data in disarray. Incomplete surveys, lagging data, and other factors are still creating a murky data environment. Most estimates suggest that Q3 is likely to come in somewhere between 3% and 3.5% but Q4 will give up much of that growth with the economy likely struggling to pull 1%. Consumer spending is still resilient (albeit deal-hunting is still the order of the day), and nonresidential investment is still solid in key sectors of data center, power generation, some commercial, pockets of health care, and general manufacturing. Residential activity was still dragging, and government spending was just 3% of growth (down from 18% a year ago).

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that based on the latest manufacturing data available, the S&P Global Index slipped slightly in November, it was 52.2, down from 52.5 in the prior month. New orders domestically were still sluggish, while export orders were noticeably weaker amid a mild global economic slowdown. Inventories were inching up for manufacturers and their customers, and that could be a concern for the look ahead into Q1 of 2026. Most manufacturer sentiment is cautiously optimistic for 2026 – again, much will hinge on the Fed.

What to Watch according to this months report? The Fed: At the time of writing, the Fed announcement on interest rates had not yet been made. Most expect a quarter point cut in December followed by one in January. If these hold, that would be bullish for growth a bit earlier in Q1.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What Can We Expect from the Federal Reserve?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.