ASA’s Monthly Sales Report: January Sales Hold Firm to Start the Year

By primary business emphasis the industrial PVF distributors said January sales 6.9% year-over-year (y/y). Year-to-date (YTD) sales +6.9% and trailing twelve months (TTM) sales +13.4%.

All respondents overall reported a median January sales increased +0.7% year-over-year and -6.4% compared with December 2025. Calendar-year YTD sales +0.7%; TTM sales +6.3%. Inventory: +6.7% versus January 2025.

Please Note: due to small sample sizes within the $15-$24.9M category, we again rolled them into the Less than $15M to create a "Less than $25M" sales volume category.

Economic Indicators:
Recent economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy continues to expand entering 2026. Real GDP growth remained positive through the final quarters of 2025, with fourth-quarter growth slowing to 1.4% amid the prolonged government shutdown; for the year as a whole, the economy expanded approximately 2.2% despite significant policy and funding uncertainties. Wholesale trade data show steady nominal sales growth alongside more moderate inventory gains, supporting continued improvement in “real” wholesale sales.

Housing activity moved sideways throughout 2025, with starts and permits fluctuating below prior cycle highs, though a decline in the 30-year mortgage rate below 6% in late February may provide some support to demand.

Labor market conditions softened modestly, as unemployment rates and initial unemployment claims trended higher during 2025, while financial conditions improved with the 10-year Treasury–federal funds rate spread moving further into positive territory heading into 2026.

What ASA members are saying:

“2026 kicked off with solid quote and sales activity during January. While current staffing is stable, there will be a significant challenge to recruit additional hires needed to support efforts to grow the business and increase sale levels.”

“Despite it being a slower month in general, our region was hit with an ice storm the last week of the month.”

“January 2025 was a surprisingly high-volume month. Typically, January is the worst month of the year for sales. The sales for January 2026 were more in-line with the norm. I believe the number of rainy days also had a tremendous effect on sales.”

“January was a tougher month with one less selling day and the impact of the snow - February is off to a strong start buoyed by the cold weather.”

“Slow start for us from Dec and Jan and into Feb but we have some larger quotes coming in so we are hopeful 2nd quarter 2026 will ramp up.”