ASA’s Monthly Sales Report: February Sales Show Resilient Growth Amid Slowing Economic Momentum and Rising Market Risks

By primary business emphasis the industrial PVF distributors said February sales 4.6% year-over-year (y/y). Year-to-date (YTD) sales +4.0% and trailing twelve months (TTM) sales +9.9%.

All respondents overall reported a Median February sales increased +10.0% year-over-year and +4.5% compared with January 2026. Calendar-year YTD sales +4.9%; TTM sales +7.4%. Inventory: +8.8% versus February 2025. Cash cycle: Median three-month average Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) edged back up to 41 days.

Please Note: due to small sample sizes within the $15-$24.9M category, we again rolled them into the Less than $15M to create a "Less than $25M" sales volume category.

Economic Indicators:
Recent economic data suggest the U.S. economy entered 2026 with less momentum than previously estimated. Real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised down from an initial 1.4% to approximately 0.7%. This downward revision reflected weaker-than-initially estimated exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment, indicating that demand softened more broadly late in the year than first reported.

Housing activity continues to act as a headwind, with starts and permits remaining relatively flat and below prior cycle highs, reflecting ongoing affordability constraints and sensitivity to interest rates. While the 30-year mortgage rate briefly dipped below 6% in February, rates have since moved higher amid rising geopolitical tensions following the late-February outbreak of the war with Iran. The escalation has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel and increased concerns around persistent inflation, which in turn has pushed bond yields higher and reduced the likelihood of near-term monetary easing.

Taken together, these factors point to a more cautious economic backdrop entering 2026; however, underlying demand remains positive. For ASA distributors, this environment suggests continued growth at a slower and more selective pace, with increased risks of project delays, tighter customer spending, and ongoing pressure on margins as costs and interest rates remain elevated.

What ASA members are saying:
 

“Business is good.”
 

“February was on track for above budgeted growth until the snow storm at the end of the month occurred”
 

“Fewer workdays and weather closures hindered business in the last two months.”
 

“Our sales are trending up due to absorbing more market share from our competitors. Our inventory is growing in anticipation of the increase in sales. Our inventory should level off while sales start to catch up.”
 

“Sales activity was inconsistent across locations, but up overall compared to the same month last year and YTD. Competitive pricing pressures continue to put stress on margins or result in lost opportunities as several competitors continue to price well below our cost.”