ASA’s March Economic Report: Q1 Comes in Stable, Navigating Uncertainty

From March’s ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q1 has just come to an end, and the data is being collected so we will soon have some idea what that quarter actually looked like (although there will be at least two revisions coming). The last estimate from GDPNow was not a great one - just 1.3%. At one point earlier in the quarter the numbers looked promising and some asserted that 2.5% was possible. That was before the Iran war and the oil crisis and now the economy as a whole is limping at the slowest pace seen since Q1 of 2025.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that despite a conflict in the Middle East and tariff uncertainty, the first quarter came in strongly for ASA members. A number of nonresidential construction segments were accelerating, automotive sales improved, home improvement sales were higher, and multi-family housing had improved. If there was a concern, single family construction activity was still struggling into mortgage rate and construction material headwinds. The outlook for Q2 could get rocky, depending on what new tariff policy looks like and how the conflict in the Middle East resolves. 

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: How Does This Mess in Iran End?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.