ASA’s February Economic Report: Growth Signals, Oil Risks, and Industry Trends

From February’s ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q1 estimates have come down a bit from what they were a few weeks ago, but the data is still pointing towards a very high level of 2.0%+ according to the Fed’s GDPNow study. It was as high as 3.5% but few expected that range to stick. Blue Chip analysts were still predicting growth of nearly 2.7%, which would be fairly robust for a Q1 report. Again, as mentioned below, much of this is up in the air as a result of the War in the Middle East.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that a cease-fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could quickly return the economic outlook to pre-conflict levels. But if the war in the Middle East drags on, risks to the economy could rise sharply. The key factor to watch isn’t the severity of the conflict—it’s its duration, which will influence everything from commodity supply and inflation to demand and global supply chains.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What Will Higher Oil Prices Mean for Inflation?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.