ASA’s December Economic Report: Can Stimulus Help Push Through Uncertainty?

From December 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: This year was shaping up with tailwinds coming from the tax bill, some proposed MBS stimulus, and softening interest rates. But there have already been several geopolitical changes theoretically throwing uncertainty into the mix early in 2026. Whether these become headwinds or are merely "noise" in the operating environment is still yet to be seen.  Left alone, the economy is poised for stable growth in 2026 with the housing, nonresidential, and energy markets generally seeing improvements this year. 

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that at the time of writing, the Atlanta Fed was showing Q4 GDP trending at 5.1%. This is prior to many data releases that could easily temper that figure. But for 2026, even the Federal Reserve is predicting a more robust top line growth rate of 2.3%, up from prior estimates of 1.8%. Much of that will depend on the labor market which has been sluggish of late and interest rates – which have increased on geopolitical uncertainty (bond markets have moved up in early January).

What to Watch according to this months report? Geopolitical events have increased at a faster pace early in 2026, and many businesses may walk a fine line between pulling back further into a holding pattern or moving forward with spending plans that seemingly were higher in 2026.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Will $200B in Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) Purchases Help Housing?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.