The Productivity Paradox: How Uncertainty Undermines Performance and What Leaders Can Do About It

The Productivity Paradox
How Uncertainty Undermines Performance
And What Leaders Can Do About It

By Dr. Mary Kelly
 

This article originally ran in the Q3 edition of ASA Review.

Uncertainty is everywhere. It shows up in the economy, in the office, in our inboxes, and in our heads.

Whether triggered by layoffs, inflation, global instability, AI disruptions, or just an avalanche of decisions, uncertainty can drain our focus and dilute our productivity.
 

As leaders, we cannot eliminate either change or chaos, but we can help our people navigate both better. In fact, uncertainty is a leadership opportunity, but only if we understand how it affects the human brain and what practical steps mitigate its impact.
 

The hidden mental
tax of uncertainty
 

At the biological level, uncertainty activates the amygdala — the part of the brain responsible for processing threats. It sets off our fight-or-flight system, making us hyper-alert but less capable of critical thinking. Over time, chronic uncertainty acts like chronic pain. It causes fatigue, emotional burnout and executive dysfunction.
 

We’ve seen this play out across workplaces in the aftermath of the pandemic, and we’re still seeing it now, as people wrestle with the ripple effects of economic fluctuations and social shifts.

How uncertainty
shows up at work
 

Uncertainty doesn’t just affect individuals. It cascades through entire organizations, creating what I call “focus fragmentation.”

You can spot this when people:
 

• Struggle to prioritize
• Avoid decision-making
• React instead of plan
• Multitask constantly — but never get anything done well
• Procrastinate excessively

A recent survey by the American Institute of Stress revealed that 80% of workers experience productivity-related anxiety, driven by unclear expectations, fear of mistakes and constant change. It’s no wonder so many teams feel like they’re sprinting in circles.

Add in continuous partial attention, the habit of being constantly “on” but never fully focused, and it’s clear: even the best employees cannot perform well without structure, clarity, and psychological safety.

What can leaders do
to restore focus?

Here’s where strong leadership doesn’t just matter, it magnifies performance. Uncertainty is inevitable, but leaders can buffer its effects by creating clarity, direction and trust.
 

1. Overcommunicate with clarity and context
    

People fear what they don’t understand. When leaders communicate frequently, even without all the answers, they build trust and reduce speculation. People can handle bad news. Not knowing anything is actually more stressful.

Tip: Use the rule of three — say it three times, in three ways, across three channels. Clarity reduces ambiguity. Ambiguity fuels anxiety.

2. Prioritize ruthlessly and visibly

When everything feels urgent, nothing gets done. Narrow your team's scope to 3–5 publicly visible priorities. Review and reinforce them weekly.

Tip: Use a “Focus Board” or simple “Objectives and Key Results Tracker.” Make it visual. Make it obvious. Make it stick. I have a 12-Month Business Success and Accountability Planner that I use with my teams and we make the goals visible to everyone.  That is free at www.ProductiveLeaders.com/2025-Success.

3. Coach through decision fatigue

People stuck in uncertainty hesitate. Empower people to act without needing perfection.

Tip: Use the “$10 vs. $10,000” decision filter: Is this mistake affordable? If yes, take the risk and move forward.

4. Model calm, decisive behavior

Your tone sets the thermostat. When you stay composed and consistent, others gain footing, even in the unknown. In the military special operations world, we teach that “calm is contagious.” Be calm when things change and make good decisions. Lead with presence. Your demeanor is more contagious than your words.

Tip: Breathe in for four counts, hold for four counts, and breathe out for four counts. 

5. Protect time for deep work

Distractions destroy productivity. Encourage team-wide “Focus Hours” with no meetings, no pings, no interruptions, but the obvious caveat is that time MUST be dedicated to work.  An easy way to do that is to ask for results at the end. 

Tip: Try a 90-minute Pomodoro Focus Session as a weekly team challenge. Then track how much gets done.

6. Recognize wins

Uncertainty feels heavy. Recognizing even small wins lifts morale and motivates momentum.

Tip: Start a Weekly Wins board or Slack channel. Any wins count! Public dopamine hits boost performance.

7. Equip people with self-management tools

Your team needs real tools to deal with stress, procrastination and overwhelm. That’s where we often fall short as leaders. We talk about time-management, but we don’t equip for it.

Tip: Provide tools like:

• Stop Procrastinating Tomorrow (book)
• Free worksheets and productivity tools at www.ProductiveLeaders.com/StopProcrastinating
• The 5-Minute Plans, 5-Minute Productivity Plan, and other downloadable tools are in the Leader’s Resource Vault at www.ProductiveLeaders.com/2025-Success.

Final thought:
Productive people need predictable leaders

Uncertainty is unproductive, but it’s not unbeatable. As a leader, you can’t control every disruption — but you can control the environment your people work in. And that’s where the real leverage lies.

Lead with clarity. Prioritize with purpose. Support with structure.