ASA’s September Economic Report: Excluding Housing Construction, Economic Conditions Look Better than Expected - For Now

From the August 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q3 estimates keep coming in hotter than had been expected. The latest assessment from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow report has third quarter growth at 3.9% and that is nearly twice the twenty year average for US growth. Granted, this data changes nearly every day and final numbers will not be released for a few weeks, but the trend is certainly positive as the economy heads towards what is usually a pretty robust consumer-driven quarter.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that there is still a lot of conjecture around the potential oil shock. There is clearly an oil glut forming and one that could drag the per barrel price down as far as $45. Oil prices have not been that low for a decade and when they fell that far before there were many oil field bankruptcies and even banks got in trouble. The bottom line is that Russia has never produced more oil, and this has flooded the market to the detriment of US producers.

What to Watch according to this months report? Retail Season. It is time for the consumer to rule the economy, and it remains a bit of a mystery. On the one hand the retail numbers are better than expected but retailers were not expecting this and chose to go into the season inventory light. That may mean a sharp slowdown at the end.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What Does a Government Shutdown do to the Economy?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.