ASA’s Monthly Sales Report: September Sales Surge - Industrial PVF Leads with 19.7% Year-Over-Year Growth

By primary business emphasis the industrial PVF distributors said September sales 19.7% year-over-year (y/y). Year-to-date (YTD) sales +7.9% and trailing-twelve-month (TTM) sales +10.4%.

All respondents overall reported a median September sales +12.0% y/y and 1.3% vs. August 2025. Calendar-year YTD sales +6.5%; TTM sales +7.1%. Inventory: +6.6% versus September 2024. Cash cycle: Median three-month average Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) remained around 41 days.

Please Note: due to small sample sizes within the $15-$24.9M category, we again rolled them into the Less than $15M to create a "Less than $25M" sales volume category.

Economic Indicators:
Due to the ongoing government shutdown, most official economic data series have not been updated for this month’s report. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second-quarter Real GDP growth upward to an annualized rate of 3.8%.

The 10-year Treasury yield minus the federal funds rate remained in negative territory through September, continuing to signal an inverted yield curve. Once data releases resume, we anticipate another strong reading for Q3 GDP, although full-year growth is still expected to finish below the historical average. Through the first half of 2025, Real GDP expanded only 1.2%.

Additionally, private-sector labor market indicators continue to show signs of softening. Given this trend, we anticipate the Federal Reserve may implement two additional rate cuts before the end of 2025.

What ASA members are saying:

— “Hiring is still very tough. Tariffs are beginning to impact the industry. Somewhat negative vibe from the market.”

— “Our sales were down 11% vs last September which was our BEST sales month ever, but our GP was up, so overall a very solid month.”

— “Sales and quoting activity have slowed in the last 60 days.”

— “September was a nice bounce-back from August. HVAC remained down year over year but offset but nice growth in plumbing.”

— “We are staying steady. We are being cautious in decision making so that we are prepared for a slow down and for any slow pays.”

— “We saw another relatively weak month (compared to budget, not PY). We are hoping to see a return to 1H 2025 sales trends in our final quarter, but regardless, we have had a good year. Falling interest rates should help spur more new construction next year, so I expect we will have solid growth expectations for 2026.”

— “While up for the month year over year, sales dropped significantly from the prior 5-6 months. Fortunately, quote activity picked up, which should lead to better results over the coming months presuming economic conditions aren't harmed by the federal government shutdown. Finding qualified candidates continues to be a frustrating and significant challenge to support business needs.”