ASA’s August Economic Report: GDP Surges, Oil Forecast Shock, and Tariff Watch

From the August 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: Q3 GDP estimates are blowing away expectations, with current growth estimates closer to 3%. Blue Chip forecasters were looking for 1% or less, but a surge in consumer spending and better than expected nonresidential fixed investment (think about structures and automation/robotics, datacenter and energy upgrades driving this investment). Overall, the only pocket of weakness for now is coming from the residential construction sector, and there could be hints that it is turning.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued what can only be described as a shocking adjustment to oil forecasts for next year. In short, it added a sharp increase in inventories in both US domestic and international markets. The result of which is a sharp drop in oil price predictions for early next year. WTI prices could pierce the $50 per barrel threshold in 2026 based on current conditions, which could weigh on production and investment.

The holiday season sparks a wave of consumer spending, starting with Halloween, rolling into “Blackvember,” and peaking with the last-minute Christmas rush. While ASA members may not feel the direct impact, this spending spree influences home projects and remodeling activity that often picks up right after the holidays. Many households choose to channel their gift-giving into appliances or home upgrades, creating opportunities for remodelers and suppliers once the festive dust settles.

Consumer behavior, however, varies widely by income group. Higher earners, bolstered by stock market gains and tax breaks, continue to drive demand for new homes and large projects. Middle-income households spend as long as jobs remain secure, though rising unemployment and trade uncertainty cast some doubt. Meanwhile, lower-income families face the greatest struggles, hit hard by inflation and mounting credit card debt. These dynamics, combined with labor shortages and unpredictable tariff policies, leave the construction and remodeling sectors in a cautious holding pattern.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: Who Wins and Loses with Tariffs?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.