ASA’s April Economic Report: Activity Better Than Expected, But Tariff Hammer Could Still Fall

Most of the economic data reported YTD through April showed surprising activity. Anecdotes and reports of quickly slowing activity were common, and slowdowns in May and June could follow. But for now, most economic data was showing the economy as being more resilient than expected. 

From the April 2025 ASA Monthly Economic Report: The Q1 GDP numbers were every bit as bad as many had feared – worse than the consensus view of only a month or so ago. The Q1 numbers entered recessionary territory with a decline to -0.3%. Bear in mind that GDP outlooks were looking pretty healthy as late as February but essentially collapsed in March. Political spin attempts aside, the reason for the dip into negative territory is fairly easy to explain.

GDP is domestic production, and imports detract from that number. The flood of imports to beat the tariffs as well as stunning levels of gold importation skewed the numbers. To get a more accurate sense of the economy will have to wait until Q2 numbers start to emerge.

The monthly ASA Economic Report is produced by Armada Corporate Intelligence, ASA’s business intelligence partner, and is available as a free member benefit for ASA members through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.
 

Armada also wrote that there is still a constant stream of changes to tariff and trade policy. Despite this constant change the business community and the ASA member has to plan and set strategic and tactical goals. What CAN be expected in the months to come? The best that can be done at this point is to look at scenarios to determine which are more or less likely. There are essentially a good set, a bad set and a really ugly set.

The ”good” set basically assumes that Trump the dealmaker will soon emerge and do what he has done through the majority of his business and political career. The ”bad” set of scenarios assumes that many of these nations resist the process and refuse to give what Trump wants in the way of concessions – at least in the short term. That leaves the “ugly” option and this gets pretty grim. The foundation of this scenario is a real period of economic warfare between the US and China.

The report also answers a reader’s question of the month: What Sectors Are Going to Feel the Impact First?

Again, ASA members can access the Monthly Economic Report through the MyASA portal at www.asa.net/myasa.